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Australia’s average new phone is heading for A$1,253. The budget tier is moving to refurbished

Omdia’s forecast has the average smartphone sold in Australia costing A$1,253 this year, a record. The average is not the part that should worry budget buyers. The cheap end of the new-phone market is being cut back, and refurbished flagships now sit at the prices those phones are leaving.

By Bryan Sloan · Published 24 September 2026 · Editorially independent · we may earn commission on some links

The forecast

Omdia’s numbers were published by WhistleOut Australia on 10 July. They put the average selling price of a smartphone in Australia on this path:

Omdia figures as reported by WhistleOut, 10 July 2026. The A$ conversions are WhistleOut’s. We worked out the percentage changes from the US$ figures.

Omdia expects the global average to rise from US$467 to US$565, about 21% and a record for both the level and the yearly jump. Australia’s rise is smaller in percentage terms, but it starts from a much higher base: in 2025 the average Australian phone already cost two-thirds more than the global average. Omdia also expects Australian shipments to slip from 7.1 million to 7.0 million handsets.

The average hides what’s happening at the cheap end

An average price can rise for two reasons: phones cost more, or fewer cheap phones get sold. This year both are happening. Omdia senior research manager Jusy Hong told WhistleOut that, with soaring memory prices hurting profits, vendors are trimming their line-ups. That means culling lower-end models, avoiding price competition and cutting back on marketing.

Omdia’s global research, reported by TechSpot on 9 July, shows why the cheap end is hit hardest. In the first quarter of 2026, memory made up nearly 60% of the parts cost of phones under US$400, and more than 64% for phones under US$99. There is almost nothing left to cut on a phone built that close to the bone. Omdia expects global shipments of phones under US$400 to fall 22% this year, while phones above US$400 grow.

Counterpoint Research is seeing the same thing. It forecasts global smartphone shipments falling more than 14% in 2026 to about 1.07 billion, the steepest annual fall on record (reported by The National, 23 August). Counterpoint principal analyst Yang Wang said higher component costs are forcing manufacturers to remove products and configurations “no longer economically viable,” particularly at lower price points.

Where refurbished now sits

As cheap new models disappear, the prices they used to sell at are now where refurbished flagships sell. These are the lowest prices on our Best Buys page for each model, all from Australian vendors:

Prices last checked 26 August 2026. Refurbished prices have been rising this year rather than falling, so confirm on the vendor site before buying.

Every phone in that table costs less than the A$1,253 forecast average for a new phone. The three cheapest are former flagships that cost A$1,399 to A$1,999 new. We are not calling that a bargain on its own. Refurbished prices have risen this year for the same memory reasons, and a three- or four-year-old phone has less life left than a new one. What has changed is the choice: under about A$500, the realistic options are fewer and weaker new phones, or a refurbished phone that was premium a few years ago.

Before you treat refurbished as your budget phone

• Check how long software updates will last. This matters more than the grade. Samsung committed to five years of security updates for the Galaxy S22 series, which launched in February 2022, so that support is due to end in early 2027. The S23 series has a year more. Apple doesn’t publish end dates, so check that the model runs the current version of iOS.
• Ask about the battery. A good vendor states battery health or replaces batteries below a set level. If the listing doesn’t say, ask before you buy.
• Your consumer-law rights still apply. Refurbished goods bought from an Australian business come with the consumer guarantees under Australian Consumer Law, on top of any warranty the vendor offers. See refurbished warranty vs new.
• Compare on dated prices. In a market this unsettled, a price is only useful with the date it was checked.

Common questions

Sources

• Fergus Halliday, WhistleOut Australia, 10 July 2026 — Omdia’s Australian and global average-selling-price forecast, Australian shipment forecast, and comments from Omdia’s Jusy Hong.
• Rob Thubron, TechSpot, 9 July 2026 — Omdia research on memory’s share of the parts cost of sub-US$400 phones and the forecast 22% fall in shipments.
• Alvin R Cabral, The National, 23 August 2026 — Counterpoint Research’s 2026 global shipment forecast and comments from Yang Wang.
• Adnan Farooqui, SamMobile, 15 September 2026 — relaying a South Korean report on Samsung seeking a further 7–10% memory price rise (single, unconfirmed report).
• Refurbished prices — RefurbVerify Best Buys, checked 26 August 2026.

Omdia’s figures are forecasts, not recorded sales. US$ to A$ conversions are as published by WhistleOut. Refurbished prices change often and vary by grade.

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